What COVID Unveils, Part 1: Y’all Math Broke

I’m not gonna give into panic either but uhm… Some of y’all math is broke.

I listen to doctor and researcher’s math. Not y’all’s math.

Y’all math broke.

I’m looking at y’all like Frank Drebin.

Y’all say 1% mortality is the same as the flu. No it ain’t. But whatever. Y’all’s doctor are politicians and talking heads. So ok. Let them do surgery on you too.

But 1% is low so y’all still say it ain’t nothing.

Of course 1% means nothing without a question that is begged. 1% of what? What is the number 1% will be multiplied by? That’s the real question.

I mean, y’all talking like y’all would eat a sammich that is 1% bear dookie.

Anyway. (My satire vibe is more Strangelove than Starship Troopers today.)

Broke Math = Y’all equations don’t have qualitative data. Don’t need quality. Just quantity. Y’all must’ve forgot math ain’t just about numbers. Like 5 apples and four apples aint about five and 4; it’s about them apples. How’s about them apples?

Broke @$$ math we dealing with here.

We ain’t talking about apples, we talking about lives, hospital beds, a broke down health care system, and virus we ain’t got ‘nam immunity to. And y’all out here talking about practice… tal’m ‘bout practice.

Now y’all got me like AI. I asked the question. Let’s get on with the Answer—see what I did there—to the question folk ain’t asking:

Qualitative and quantitative facts: unlike the flu, COVID-19’s transmissibility is ridiculously higher and mercurial and if left unchecked 50-70% of the population could get it within months.

It’s like the flu, even tho we have no immunity to COVID. It’s like the flu, even tho there’s no vaccine for COVID-19. It’s like the flu, even though this virus is way more transmissible and deadlier. COVID ain’t that dangerous to young folk even though nearly 40% of hospitalizations is for folk 20-54 years old. And older folk really need those beds. It’s like the flu, even tho NYC’s hospitals finna be overrun in 1 week, and the flu don’t…

Y’all reality broke.

Folk with the flu know they are sick in 1-2 days after getting infected, while on average this takes 7 days to display noticeable symptoms, which means folk will spread this to their social circles for about a week before them folk feel sick.

We will go to work, churches, parties, and family gatherings and not know we got it but will be shedding that $h!t nonetheless.

They ain’t gone social distance. Cuz the math say it ain’t nothing. Cuz individualism, and the economy, and ideology is greater than a virus.

That’s that broke math right there.

So left unchecked, folk gone spread the thing. The thing that’s the flu but ain’t the flu. Cuz the flu has the same math that COVID-19 got.

It don’t.

Let’s do math. We need a mortality rate. It’s still in flux, but let’s use 1%. We need a solid number of potential folk who could be infected. Most researchers are saying 40-70% of the population. I’ll go with 50%. 320,000,000 Americans x 0.5 = 160,000,000. 160 million people. 160,000,000 (a large number y’all don’t care about) x 0.01 (a small number y’all ain’t scared of) = 1.6 million people. That means 1.6 million people could potentially die in less than a year if there are no vaccines or treatments available. And y’all say it’s just the flu. Cuz the flu can make half the population sick in 12 months.

But this ain’t just about numbers. It’s qualitative. What’s the quality of healthcare in certain regions? What happens if this gets in a nursing home or retirement community? What happens if it spreads to an area without adequate health care, amongst a population with high percentage of folk with underlying conditions? These are qualitative questions that can amplify quantitative results in terms of hospitalizations, ICU stays, and unfortunately, even death.

No more satire. I’m just a cat who was trained in theology but has a love for math and science. I have enough humility to know that math and science are not my areas of expertise nor do they exhaust the ways in which we understand the cosmos. I rely on the advice and research of professionals—not simply when the situation is dire or convenient—but at all times because I’m constantly aware that what I don’t know is always greater than what I do know.

That’s a qualitative and quantitative statement. That’s a spirituality, Faith, and theology that doesn’t run from the concrete numbers—because the concrete numbers are symbols of something greater.

And ultimately, I believe that the health and well-being of others is greater than political, economic, and social systems—which, by the way, are being exposed as inadequate and subpar. And they’ve been that way for awhile.

If missing 2-4 weeks of work will literally wreck the livelihoods of the majority of Americans, that means that our economy is geared towards the few and not the many. If two weeks off will cause a bunch of folk to not be able to pay a mortgage or rent, that means we live in a society that is not just folk living paycheck-to-paycheck, but but a pinky toe’s length away from economic collapse. This virus has unmasked some ugly truths. If a sudden surge in illness cannot be handled by our healthcare system and there are those with no health insurance who worry that a hospital test or stay would cause them irreparable economic harm—then perhaps our healthcare system isn’t so good… I could go on and on… but I was talking about math…

I don’t like broken math. I yearn for a math that views this world holistically and lovingly. I yearn for a unimaginable quality and quantity of love, mercy, and justice that pours itself out liberally and freely. And I shall not worship anything that won’t let a virus have its say.

Note: This is the first of many posts concerning this virus. I will be following Jon Sobrino’s observation that catastrophes have a way of being an X-Ray of a society.

Faith, Hope, and Love

Love > anything else

© MJ Sales 2020